The Fuel and Energy Business Association (FEBA) and leading analytical centers conducted a consolidated analysis of structural shifts in the retail petroleum products market. The study confirms a significant increase in market concentration, resulting from a combination of military, economic, and fiscal factors.

This trend creates a new landscape for all market participants—from producers to end-consumers—and demands attention from regulatory bodies to preserve price stability and ensure industry sustainability.

Cardinal Structural Shifts: Monopolization in Figures

Since 2022, the fuel market has faced unprecedented changes, leading to a shift in the balance of power and the consolidation of market power:

• Critical Concentration Growth (HHI Index): Calculations using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) recorded a 47% increase in market concentration in the petroleum products market. This is a direct economic indicator that the influence on pricing and distribution has significantly increased among a small group of the largest operators.
• Consolidation of Financial Flows: As a result, only 17 companies now receive over 50% of all retail market revenues. This confirms a significant concentration of financial resources, which strengthens their stability but simultaneously reduces overall market maneuverability.
• Loss of the “Price Anchor”: Historically, a key operator (discounter) functioned as the “price anchor,”restraining the general price level. Its disappearance has allowed the “premium” segment to increase the average markup on branded fuel.

Multi-Factor Impact: Causes of Concentration

The growth of concentration is a complex, multi-factor process where military and economic factors overlap with regulatory decisions:

Military and Economic Factors

• Logistics Destruction: Military actions destroyed logistical hubs and internal capacities. This led to a 90% reorientation of imports from the EU (so-called “from the wheels” trade).
• Advantage of Resource Giants: In these unstable conditions, companies with larger financial reserves and an extensive logistical infrastructure gained an advantage in ensuring uninterrupted supplies.
• Reduced Volumes: The decrease in overall consumption volumes (due to migration and economic downturn) intensified the struggle for market share, also contributing to the displacement of weaker players.

Tax Component

• Increased Tax Burden: The rise in excise tax increased the proportion of taxes in the fuel price structure.
• Disproportionate Fiscal Pressure: The fixed monthly advance corporate income tax payment creates a disproportionate burden on small and medium-sized businesses (MSBs). For companies with low sales (regional discounters), this fixed payment undermines financial stability, accelerating their exit from the market.

Forecast and Consequences: Risks for Business and Consumers

Analysis of the current situation states significant risks that could materialize in 2026 if regulatory measures are not taken:

Risk	Impact on Market and Business	Consequences for the End-Consumer
Increased Price Dictate	Given the high concentration (HHI growth), the premium segment gains greater opportunities for coordinating pricing policy and using market power.	Elimination of the price restraint mechanism. Fuel prices become less dependent on global quotes and more on the internal pricing policy of market leaders.
Inflationary Pressure	The displacement of MSBs leads to the disappearance of the cheapest assortment and raises the price floor for all brands.	Direct risk of “fueling the inflationary spiral,” as fuel is the main element of the cost of most goods and services.
Growing Income Gap	Concentration allows large players to monetize their infrastructure more effectively. The income gap between premium and other networks will increase.	Reduced fuel availability in remote and rural communities due to the closure of local gas stations that could not withstand competitive and fiscal pressure.

Preserving a competitive environment is critical for macroeconomic stability. This requires a balanced fiscal design that does not create disproportionate pressure on MSBs, as well as strengthened anti-monopoly monitoring to prevent the misuse of market power. FEBA calls for dialogue to form fair rules of the game that benefit the economy and citizens.