The Ukrainian retail fuel market continues to shrink. Today, this is no longer just a challenge for local gas stations or small businesses; new data from the State Tax Service (STS) indicates a deeper trend—a gradual transformation of the entire market structure that is increasingly affecting mid-sized operators.

The Fuel and Energy Business Association (FEBA) has analyzed official STS data regarding the number of business entities, active and revoked licenses, and tax revenues in the retail fuel segment for 2023–2026. According to the Association, these results require a far broader discussion than mere tax statistics.

According to the STS, the number of business entities holding active retail fuel licenses plummeted from 1,471 as of January 1, 2023, to 916 as of April 24, 2026. Effectively, the market has lost over a third of its participants in less than three years. Concurrently, the number of active licenses dropped significantly: from 7,398 in 2025 to 5,328 by April 2026.

Dynamic across operator groups:

• Small Operators (1–10 licenses): Dropped from 1,348 (2023–2024) to 853 in 2026.
• Mid-sized Operators (11–50 licenses): Dropped from 103 in 2023 to 49 in 2026.
• Larger Operators (51–100 licenses): Dropped from 14 to 8.
• Major Networks (100+ licenses): Remained stable at six companies.

This dynamic points to deeper processes than just the closure of small, inefficient stations. The market is entering a phase of concentration where financial and regulatory pressure is now impacting not just small players, but the mid-sized segment of regional operators.

“We are witnessing a gradual change in the very architecture of the fuel market. Previously, risks were concentrated around small local networks, but today the pressure is noticeably affecting mid-sized operators. This is no longer a matter of individual companies; it is a question of the country’s future market structure and the level of competition,” notes Tetiana Dumenkova, Deputy Head of the Fuel and Energy Business Association.

For consumers, these processes mean much more than just a change in the number of players. They threaten fuel availability in small communities, logistics stability, the agricultural sector, emergency services, and the resilience of infrastructure in frontline regions.

The analysis also highlights concerning fiscal shifts:

• VAT & Profit Tax Revenue: VAT receipts dropped from 20.77 billion UAH (2024) to 17.59 billion UAH (2025), while profit tax receipts fell from 13.01 billion UAH to 11.99 billion UAH. Combined, the market saw a decline of over 4 billion UAH in basic tax revenue.
• License Revocations: For the first time in 2025, the failure to pay the mandatory advance profit tax became a primary reason for license revocation (233 licenses revoked in 2025, and 8 more by April 2026).

FEBA notes that the advance payment mechanism is currently influencing not just the tax burden, but the ability of operators to remain within the legal segment of the market.

FEBA emphasizes that this is not a call to reduce taxes or exempt businesses from their responsibilities. Instead, it is an appeal for a more balanced and differentiated regulatory approach that accounts for the real operating conditions of different fuel businesses.

Companies operating in stable regions with high volumes and those fueling frontline or sparsely populated communities operate in vastly different economic realities, yet they face the same regulatory and tax burdens.

“Today, our key task is to prevent a situation where short-term fiscal effects gradually destroy the competitive foundation of the market,” concludes Dumenkova. “If Ukraine loses a portion of its small and mid-sized local operators, especially in frontline regions, it will mean not only less competition, but a weaker fuel infrastructure, lower accessibility, and a narrower tax base in the future.”