Until recently, the logic of the fuel market seemed relatively simple: if oil gets cheaper, with a certain time lag, the prices for gasoline and diesel should also decrease. In 2026, this dependency increasingly stops working.

The reason is that the global market has faced not so much a shortage of crude oil as a shortage of available refining capacities. There is enough oil on the global market, but there are fewer opportunities to quickly turn it into gasoline, diesel, or aviation fuel. It is this factor that is increasingly influencing the final cost of petroleum products.

Tetiana Dumenkova, Deputy Head of the Fuel and Energy Business Association, writes about the new logic of the global fuel market in her column for OBOZ.UA.

There is enough oil, but finished fuel is lacking

After the partial restoration of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, global supplies of crude oil began to recover rapidly, and physical oil prices declined. At the same time, the export of finished petroleum products recovered much more slowly, as some refineries in the Middle East require repairs, and attacks on Russian refining capacities further reduce the global supply of gasoline and diesel.

As a result, a paradox has emerged: crude oil is getting cheaper, but finished fuel remains expensive.

This is especially evident in the diesel fuel market. In August, the gap between the price of diesel and crude oil reached levels that were several times higher than the historically typical indicator. In fact, it is no longer the raw material itself that is becoming increasingly expensive, but the ability to refine it.

A new problem: the lack of capacity reserves

The main change in the current crisis is that the world did not run out of refineries. It ran out of a sufficient reserve of refining capacities.

For decades in Europe and other developed countries, old plants were closed, while new large capacities were concentrated mainly in Asia and the Middle East. Such a model was economically efficient in a stable world, but it has become significantly more vulnerable under conditions of war, infrastructure attacks, and disruptions in global logistics.

As a consequence, even a local accident or damage to a large refinery can affect prices far beyond the country where the event occurred.

That is why today it is more correct to speak not simply of a shortage of refineries, but of a shortage of reserve, protected, and quickly accessible refining capacity.

A new component has appeared in the price of fuel

The market is increasingly pricing the risks of future disruptions into the cost of fuel.

Traders assess not only the current balance of supply and demand, but also low reserves of finished products, refinery workloads, possible repairs, military risks, the instability of sea routes, and the probability of new attacks on refining infrastructure.

Thus, practically a new component is being formed in the cost of gasoline and diesel — a refining security premium. The consumer pays not only for the oil, but also for the risk that the plant supposed to turn it into a finished product may stop tomorrow or be damaged.

That is why in the coming months, oil prices may fall faster than prices for finished petroleum products.

What this means for Ukraine

For Ukraine, this trend is of particular importance because our fuel market largely depends on the import of finished petroleum products.

Therefore, strategic reserves today should be assessed not only in tons or barrels of raw materials, but primarily in how many days the country is able to ensure mobility, the work of the agricultural sector, critical logistics, emergency services, and defense needs.

According to the FEBA, finished fuel should be considered as a separate and full-fledged element of the strategic reserve system. Global practice is already moving in this direction: states that have lost part of their own refining are paying more and more attention to accumulating diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel specifically, rather than just crude oil.

In parallel, it is necessary to work on increasing the resilience of the fuel infrastructure itself: decentralize critical facilities, duplicate key systems, create equipment reserves for rapid repair, and diversify ports, terminals, and supply routes.

For business, this signal is also obvious: own working fuel reserves, working with multiple suppliers, and reducing dependence on a single type of energy resource are becoming increasingly important.

Fuel security is changing its logic

For decades, the world prepared for a scenario where the main problem would be a shortage of oil. Instead, today it is becoming obvious: even with a sufficient amount of raw materials, the system can face a shortage of the finished product.

For Ukraine, this is another argument in favor of the fact that fuel resilience must be built comprehensively: through reserves of finished petroleum products, diversified logistics, infrastructure protection, and readiness to respond promptly to disruptions in global refining.

After all, in the new reality, the question is no longer just “how much oil is there in the world?”, but much more practically — will fuel be produced from it on time and will we be able to get it when it is needed the most.Read the full column by Deputy Head of FEBA Tetiana Dumenkova “Oil ‘Falls’, Fuel ‘Rises’: The New Deficit Broke the Old Price Logic” on OBOZ.UA.