The reduction in the number of gas stations, increasing fiscal burdens, and market concentration are intensifying risks to regional fuel accessibility. Amid the war and future reconstruction, small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs)—particularly those owned by veterans—can become a key element of stability for the fuel and energy market, provided that licensing approaches are adapted.

The fuel and energy sector remains a core component of Ukraine’s economic resilience during wartime and for future post-war recovery. Fuel availability directly impacts the operation of the agricultural sector, transport, medicine, humanitarian logistics, and local economies. Consequently, any structural changes in this market have repercussions that extend far beyond the industry itself.

In this context, the role of Small and Medium-sized Businesses (SMEs) in the fuel segment takes on special significance. This is not just about economic indicators, but about physical presence in regions and the ability to operate under limited resources while quickly adapting to changes in demand and logistics. According to estimates by international organizations and national analytical centers, SMEs form almost the entire entrepreneurial structure of Ukraine, providing more than two-thirds of jobs and a significant portion of added value. In the fuel and energy sector, this primarily includes local gas station operators, small oil depots, traders, and transport-logistics companies.

The Fuel Market Under Pressure: Concentration and Regional Imbalance

At the same time, recent years have shown that the positions of SMEs in the fuel market are gradually weakening. According to industry research, the number of gas stations in Ukraine, which stood at about 7.7 thousand before the war, is holding at approximately 6 thousand in 2025—nearly a fifth less than before the start of the full-scale invasion.

These losses have been most palpable for frontline, de-occupied, and rural communities. Rising operating costs, difficult security conditions, and a significant fiscal burden have substantially narrowed the ability of local businesses to maintain infrastructure. For instance, the introduction of advance corporate income tax payments for gas stations encouraged large networks to optimize their portfolios but practically “squeezed out” a portion of small operators, especially where margins were low.

Market Figures: The Real Share Provided by Small Business

Despite the dominance of large networks in terms of sales volume, the structure of Ukraine’s fuel market remains SME-oriented:

• 55–60% of retail fuel trade licensees are small and medium operators (up to 10–15 gas stations);
• Over 70% of settlements where fuel is sold are served specifically by local companies;
• In frontline and rural communities, the SME share in terms of physical fuel availability exceeds 80%—large networks are often uninterested in such locations due to risks and low profitability.

These data indicate that SMEs provide not only sales volume but also territorial presence, continuity of supply, and basic energy accessibility.

Regional Impact and the War

The role of small business is further proven by its activities between 2022 and 2025. It was local gas stations and oil depots that supplied fuel to farmers during critical seasons, supported the work of communal enterprises and medical facilities, participated in humanitarian aid logistics, and continued to operate during power outages using autonomous power sources.

For many communities, the loss of a single local gas station means a virtual loss of access to fuel within a radius of 30–50 km, which, under conditions of active hostilities and logistical fluctuations, turns into a critical problem.

Prices and Market Trends in 2025

Current trends in 2025 deserve separate mention: as of late December, the average price of A-95 gasoline is approximately 58.28–63.16 UAH/l, and diesel is similarly around 58 UAH/l, which in some places significantly exceeds the commercial offers of certain networks.

Prices have remained relatively stable throughout the year but are perceptibly sensitive to global market fluctuations, exchange rates, and tax policy, which affects the margins and solvency of local operators, especially small ones.

Historical Parallels: Post-War Europe

Similar challenges are not unique to Ukraine. The experience of European countries after World War II demonstrates that during periods of reconstruction, a decentralized fuel market model ensures economic resilience. In West Germany, during the first post-war years, local gas station operators and small transport companies sustained economic activity until the full restoration of major energy infrastructure. The state at that time simplified access to permits and encouraged the development of local businesses along key transport corridors, which became one of the factors of rapid economic reconstruction.

Similar approaches were applied in Italy and Finland, where small operators and cooperatives—including those involving veterans—played an important role in fuel and transport logistics, ensuring supply stability and creating jobs without a significant burden on the state budget.

Veteran-Owned Business: An Untapped Resource

According to various estimates, the number of veterans and persons with combatant status in Ukraine already exceeds 1 million and may grow after the conclusion of the active phase of the war. Even a 1-2% involvement of veterans in entrepreneurship within the fuel sector means 10–20 thousand potential entrepreneurs and 5–7 thousand new jobs in the regions, which would have a multiplicative economic effect.

The integration of veterans into small fuel businesses—through small gas stations, mobile refueling complexes, or local logistics—can be viewed not as a social benefit, but as a component of economic strategy.

The Mechanism of “Veteran Licenses” for SMEs: How It Could Work

One of the proposed mechanisms is the implementation of temporary veteran quotas in licensing policy:

• Up to 20% of new or reissued licenses could be allocated to enterprises founded by veterans;
• The “one person — one license” principle ensures equality of opportunity;
• Territorial linkage—the community of residence or a de-occupied/frontline territory;
• Restrictions on license transfer for a period of 3–5 years;
• Mandatory actual conduct of activity recorded in the electronic register of the State Tax Service and veteran registries.

This approach minimizes the risks of market speculation and creates a transparent market access model favorable to local entrepreneurs.

Working daily with the member companies of our Association, we can confidently state that SMEs in this sector provide the structural resilience of the fuel market, especially in the regions, and are a critically important element of the energy accessibility of communities. In 2025, despite the overall decrease in the number of gas stations, it is the local operators who maintain market functionality where large networks have limited capacity. Adapting licensing approaches, maintaining a moderate fiscal regime, and supporting SMEs—particularly veteran-owned businesses—can become a significant factor in preserving competition and fuel accessibility during war and reconstruction. This will be the priority for the Association’s activities in 2026.