The Ukrainian fuel market continues to adapt to the new reality formed after 2022. The main trends are geographical diversification of supply, the growing role of domestic operators, and the strengthening of state regulatory influence. Alongside this, new challenges arise for maintaining competition and balanced industry development.

Supply Diversification and Market Resilience

Over the past two years, the structure of fuel imports has undergone significant changes. While before 2022, over 70% of imports were provided by Russian and Belarusian suppliers, Ukraine now receives fuel from more than 35 countries—primarily Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Greece, the Netherlands, the USA, and the Baltic States.

The development of sea, rail, and road logistics has created a foundation for market stability even in crisis conditions. This diversification is one of the key achievements in the country’s energy security.

The Impact of Regulatory Decisions

The state is consistently implementing a policy of de-shadowing the industry—specifically through improving the licensing system, digitalization of tax reporting, and control over fuel circulation.

At the same time, certain initiatives, particularly concerning the tightening of tax administration or the introduction of fixed advance corporate income tax payments regardless of business scale, actual throughput, and the location of the gas station, have already created a disproportionate burden on small and medium-sized businesses, which do not have the same financial resources as large networks.

FEBA emphasizes: de-shadowing the market should not be accompanied by discrimination against legal operators. It is crucial that all new requirements are based on the principles of proportionality, equal access, and regulatory predictability.

Risks of Concentration and Ensuring Fair Competition

Although the number of importers and market operators has grown, real access to critical resources—logistics, crediting, port infrastructure—is concentrated among a few large networks. This creates potential risks of excessive market concentration.

FEBA calls for systematic cooperation with the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine to monitor market shares, ensure the openness of license information, and prevent the creation of hidden entry barriers. Transparency and public datamust become a tool for trust, not selective influence.

European Integration and New Standards

The Ukrainian fuel sector is gradually adapting to European requirements—particularly in the areas of fuel quality, emissions, and the development of alternative energy sources.

FEBA supports the introduction of EU standards but stresses that their implementation must be phased and economically justified so that small operators can modernize without losing competitiveness.

It is important that regulatory harmonization is accompanied by state support tools for the transition, including tax incentives for investment in biofuels, energy efficiency, and digital logistics.

A Look into the Future

The years 2025–2027 will be decisive for forming a balanced model of the fuel market—combining transparency, competition, and sustainability.

FEBA advocates for fair conditions for all operators, regardless of size, as well as an active dialogue between business, government, and regulatory bodies.

Only through open competition, equal access to infrastructure, and predictable regulatory policy will the fuel market be able to remain stable, competitive, and capable of supporting Ukraine’s economy during the recovery period.