Ukraine managed to overcome the fuel crisis of 2022 and completely rebuild the logistics of petroleum product supply. However, the new market model remains largely dependent on European oil refineries, ports, terminals, railways, and border infrastructure. Therefore, potential strikes on energy facilities in EU countries should be considered as one of the scenarios for which Ukraine needs to prepare in advance.

This was stated in her column for OBOZ.UA by Tetiana Dumenkova, Deputy Head of the Fuel and Energy Business Association.

Fuel is available, but it is critically important where exactly it is located

Following the shutdown of the Kremenchuk Refinery, the destruction of tank farms, and the loss of traditional supply routes, Ukraine has essentially transitioned to an import-based fuel supply model. Today, a significant portion of gasoline and diesel fuel comes from European plants, ports, and terminals.

This system is much more resilient than in the spring of 2022, but at the same time, it has its own vulnerabilities. The availability of petroleum products on the global market does not yet guarantee the ability to quickly deliver them to Ukraine. This requires available port capacities, tanks, tank cars, fuel trucks, railway routes, and border crossing capacity.

Such dependency can become especially critical in winter, when diesel fuel and gasoline are needed not only for transport, but also for the operation of generators in hospitals, boiler houses, water utilities, pharmacies, communication facilities, stores, and residential buildings.

The greatest risks are associated with diesel fuel

The European market has a substantial structural surplus of gasoline, so even a severe reduction in production at individual refineries will not necessarily lead to a critical shortage of A-95.

With diesel fuel, the situation is more complex: the European Union itself depends on its imports. In the event of the simultaneous cessation of operations of large refineries in Poland, Lithuania, or Romania, these states will be forced to compete with Ukraine for the same tanker batches, port capacities, and transport.

Under such a scenario, the problem will arise not due to the complete absence of fuel in the world, but due to the inability to promptly obtain the necessary resource in the right place, at an acceptable price, and with available logistics.

What solutions need to be prepared

According to Tetiana Dumenkova, Ukraine must calculate scenarios for the loss of 25%, 50%, and 100% of the processing capacities of key supplier countries right now, separately providing for options where European ports continue to operate or also suffer damage.

For each such scenario, alternative suppliers, necessary resource volumes, backup routes, and those responsible for coordination must be determined.

In addition, it is necessary to reserve in advance not only the fuel itself, but also the possibility of its rapid acquisition: port slots, terminal capacities, tanker batches, tank cars, and transport corridors across the border. In a crisis situation, a deficit often arises not because of the absence of the product, but because of a lack of available infrastructure for its delivery.

A separate direction must be the formation of distributed reserves of finished winter diesel fuel for hospitals, water utilities, boiler houses, mobile communication facilities, municipal transport, and other critical services.

Every hromada must have accurate calculations of generator consumption and understand how many hours or days the available resource will last in the event of a prolonged power outage.

Fuel security needs a “Plan B”

The scenario of massive attacks on EU refineries remains extreme and should not be presented as inevitable. At the same time, energy security is built not on the assumption that a certain event will not happen, but on the state’s readiness to act if it does happen.

Ukraine has already proved that it is capable of rebuilding fuel logistics in a short time. However, during a new large-scale crisis, there may not be time to create a supply system from scratch.

That is why the task of the state, hromadas, and business is to pre-form reserve mechanisms, diversify routes, secure agreements with European partners, and determine the priority of ensuring critical infrastructure.

Read Tetiana Dumenkova’s detailed column “What if an ‘EU Refinery Strike’ Happens? Will We Be Able to Fuel the Generator in Winter?” on OBOZ.UA