Wartime business: who wins and survives in the Ukrainian fuel market

In a new analytical article published by Kommersant Ukrainian, the current state of Ukraine’s fuel market is examined in detail. The facts presented confirm key concerns that the Fuel and Energy Business Association has been voicing for a long time.

Market Consolidation and the Displacement of SMEs

In recent years, the market has undergone significant structural changes. Oleksandr Sirenko, an analyst at the consulting company NaftoRynok, notes a shift in market leadership and the rapid growth of major players. According to current data, the 10 largest networks now control 67% of the retail fuel market.

Tatiana Dumenkova, Deputy Head of FEBA, emphasized in her comment for the publication:

“Large networks are actively consolidating the market, pushing out smaller players. Small and medium-sized filling station owners, facing challenges in financing, logistics, and tax pressure, are often forced to sell their businesses or cease operations altogether.”

Unfair Tax Burden and the Rise of the Shadow Economy

One of the key factors weakening the position of small and medium-sized businesses is the unfair fiscal burden. According to Danylo Hetmantsev, Head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Taxation, and Customs Policy, 499 licenses held by 322 business entities were revoked in the first half of 2025 due to non-payment of advance corporate income tax contributions. FEBA draws attention to the critical consequences of this policy.

Tatiana Dumenkova explains:

“According to our data, after the introduction of advance tax payments, 20% of SMEs moved into the shadow economy—abandoning legal business operations and switching to grey schemes. This harms the national budget and fosters unfair competition.”

This position is supported by expert Serhii Sapegin:

“Unfortunately, current tax policy plays into the hands of large players, instead of protecting small businesses and preserving healthy competition.”

Consequences for Consumers and the Economy

Experts interviewed by Kommersant Ukrainian are unanimous in their assessment of the risks associated with further market monopolization:

• Reduced competition in regional markets;
• Potential price increases;
• Declining service quality;
• Limited access to fueling points for consumers.

Tatiana Dumenkova emphasizes:

“A healthy competitive market with players of various sizes stimulates innovation, improves service quality, ensures flexible pricing, prevents collusion, expands consumer choice, and increases resilience to external shocks.”

The Fuel and Energy Business Association firmly believes that support for small and medium-sized enterprises must become a priority in state policy.

Our mission is to resist unfair tax pressure, limit lobbying by dominant market players, and protect equal conditions for competition.

Andriy Kopylov
Head of the Standards Committee 

Personnel training specialist with over 20 years of experience in fuel companies. Has conducted more than a thousand training sessions for filling station network managers. Involved in the development and implementation of fuel standards, customer service standards, and operational procedures for fuel industry professionals.