The rise in fuel prices in Ukraine has a far broader impact than is often perceived at the consumer level. As noted by Tetiana Dumenkova, Deputy Head of the Fuel and Energy Business Association (FEBA), the fuel market isn’t just about cars—it is about the entire economy, including the prices of food, services, and logistics.

Fuel is essentially a basic component of most goods, from food products to construction materials. Transport is used at every stage of production and delivery, creating additional cost overheads.

According to NBU data, inflation in Ukraine in March 2026 accelerated to 7.9% in annual terms, while fuel prices grew even faster—by over 23% year-on-year.

The Delayed Effect: The Main Risk Lies Ahead

Tetiana Dumenkova highlights a key characteristic of fuel inflation: its delayed nature.

Price hikes in fuel do not immediately reflect in final retail prices. First, logistics costs change, then producer prices are adjusted, and only later do new price tags appear in retail stores. International research suggests that the full effect of rising fuel prices can manifest over several months.

In current conditions, this process follows a clear logic of development:

• Spring: Rise in fuel prices;
• Early Summer: Revision of transportation tariffs;
• Summer: Increase in wholesale/producer prices;
• Autumn: Full reflection in the prices of products and services.

Experts estimate that the autumn period could be the most impactful for consumers.

Fuel Prices Are Locked Into the New Harvest

The Deputy Head of FEBA specifically emphasizes the agricultural factor. Food production involves significant diesel consumption—from field operations to drying, storage, and transportation.

If fuel is already “locked in” for the season at a high price, it automatically forms a new base cost for the products. Furthermore, even if global oil prices subsequently drop, the price of goods rarely returns to previous levels because other costs—such as logistics, wages, rent, and financial burdens—have increased in the meantime.

Why This Matters for State Policy

Tetiana Dumenkova underscores that the cost of fuel is not just a market factor, but a tool for influencing inflation across the entire economy.

In international practice, various approaches are used to curb prices during fuel crises:

• Temporary reduction of the tax burden;
• Compensation mechanisms for businesses;
• Regulatory tools to stabilize the market;
• Support for competition.

Such decisions help reduce the “pass-through” effect of fuel inflation into other sectors of the economy.

Without systemic solutions, the economy faces multiple waves of price increases—from fuel to logistics, goods, and services—ultimately driving overall inflation. Therefore, the key task is not to compensate for the consequences, but to work with the causes: price structure, tax burden, and market competition conditions.

Read the full column by Tetiana Dumenkova, Deputy Head of the Fuel and Energy Business Association, at the link below: https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/ekonomika-glavnaya/analytics-and-forecasts/koli-dizel-pereide-z-azs-v-holodilnik-chasu-ne-tak-bagato.htm